Thinking fast grow summary
Home » Uncategorized » Avoiding Sep 11 Attacks, Happy Marriage Equation & Better Thinking Ideas

Avoiding Sep 11 Attacks, Happy Marriage Equation & Better Thinking Ideas

Thinking_Fast_Slow_Summary

First Things First – Daniel Kahneman’s “Thinking, Fast And Slow” Is A Must Must Read Book ! Yes – READ IT. It Is One Of The Best Investments You Will Make.

Daniel Kahneman is the first non-economist to profession to win the Nobel Prize in Economics. But do not worry – the book is easy read and very though-provoking. The book aims to help us understand our systematic errors (biases) so that we an anticipate, identify and avoid them. An accurate diagnosis of our errors of judgement and choice may prevent or limit the damages of our errors.

The central theme is that our minds have two systems for making decisions – System 1 and System 2.

System 1 operates automatically and quickly, with little or no effort and no sense of voluntary control.
System 2 allocates attention to the effortful mental activities that demand it, including complex computations. The operations of System 2 are often associated with the subjective experience of agency, choice, and concentration.

The books speaks of the role and importance of System 1 in our lives and decisions – intuitions, illusions. It controls us more than we think it does. We become strangers to ourselves. Eventually, System 2 should drive us. And if System 1 is driving us, we should slow down and change course.

The book touches upon many topics and each one is worth diving further into. I am resisting my temptation to write about all of them – as I want you to read the book.

Let me touch upon selective interesting points:

1. One of the important point is about Focus. Multi-tasking is not a great thing as self-control and deliberate thought apparently draw on the same limited budget of effort. Self-control requires attention and effort. Focus and maintaining a consistent thought process requires discipline. Hence tired and hungry judges tend to fall back on the easier default position of denying requests for parole rather thank think more deeper on merits of the case.

2. High correlation exists between thinking and self-control. People with high self-control have higher measures of executive control in cognitive tasks, and especially the ability to reallocate their attention effectively. The children who had shown more self-control as four-year-olds had substantially higher scores on tests of intelligence. There is a significant difference in intellectual aptitude between people with different self-control.

3. Another interesting finding is the idea of money primes individualism: a reluctance to be involved with others, to depend on others, or to accept demands from others.

4. Cognitive Ease allows System 1 to be in control while Cognitive Strain determines whether System 1 should involve System 2. Hence marketing works on creative cognitive ease and lead us to intended behaviours. Using bold colors, simpler language helps. If the message is to be printed, use high-quality paper to maximize the contrast between characters and their background. If you use color, you are more likely to be believed if your text is printed in bright blue or red than in middling shades of green, yellow, or pale blue. As we all know, repetition induces cognitive ease and a comforting feeling of familiarity. It is the exposure effect. A good mood weakens System 2 and hence one needs to be extra careful. Similarly, one should not dismiss an idea because it is badly packaged in a hard language or bad font.

5. The Wisdom of Crowds indeed makes sense. A collective judgement is often superior to individual judgements.

6. Whenever taking decisions, ensure that the different biases are checked:
Halo Effect
Substitute Effect
Anchoring
Availability
Optimism Bias

A checklist is a great tool for making decisions.

Example of Availability Bias: People feel politicians and celebrities often resort to Adultery? Does the aphrodisiac of power cause such behaviour? Statistically, politicians and celebrities have same amount of affairs as other people – it is only that their cases get highlighted more in the media and we tend to feel that they are more morally challenged.

7. Bad News: Some experimenters have reported that an angry face “pops out” of a crowd of happy faces, but a single happy face does not stand out in an angry crowd. The brains of humans and other animals contain a mechanism that is designed to give priority to bad news. By shaving a few hundredths of a second from the time needed to detect a predator, this circuit improves the animal’s odds of living long enough to reproduce. The automatic operations of System 1 reflect this evolutionary history. No comparably rapid mechanism for recognizing good news has been detected. Of course, we and our animal cousins are quickly alerted to signs of opportunities to mate or to feed, and advertisers design billboards accordingly. Still, threats are privileged above opportunities, as they should be.

8. The sunk-cost fallacy keeps people for too long in poor jobs, unhappy marriages, and unpromising research projects.

9. people expect to have stronger emotional reactions (including regret) to an outcome that is produced by action than to the same outcome when it is produced by inaction

10. The greatest test for professionals including fund managers is persistent achievement.

Most of the buyers and sellers know that they have the same information; they exchange the stocks primarily because they have different opinions. The buyers think the price is too low and likely to rise, while the sellers think the price is high and likely to drop. The puzzle is why buyers and sellers alike think that the current price is wrong. What makes them believe they know more about what the price should be than the market does? For most of them, that belief is an illusion.

The book contains many memorable quotes. For example:
– Pupil of the eye is the window to the soul.
– Emotional tail wags the rational dog

The book is replete with rich examples and interesting anecdotes. Some examples were really amazing and though-provoking.

1. The Equation for Success

According to Kaheman, his favourite equation is:

Success = Talent + Luck
Great Success = A Little More Talent + A Lot Of Luck

We tend to undermine the role of luck. Whether analyzing stock markets or other events, we tend to ignore the role of luck.

2. The Formula for Marital Stability

Frequency of Lovemaking minus frequency of quarrels

Sounds obvious? Now this is endorsement from the Nobel-prize winning Guru!

3. The September 11 Attacks

If an event had actually occurred, people exaggerated the probability that they had assigned to it earlier. If the possible event had not come to pass, the participants erroneously recalled that they had always considered it unlikely.

The worse the consequence, the greater the hindsight bias. In the case of a catastrophe, such as 9/11, we are especially ready to believe that the officials who failed to anticipate it were negligent or blind. On July 10, 2001, the Central Intelligence Agency obtained information that al-Qaeda might be planning a major attack against the United States. George Tenet, director of the CIA, brought the information not to President George W. Bush but to National Security Adviser Condoleezza Rice. When the facts later emerged, Ben Bradlee, the legendary executive editor of The Washington Post, declared, “It seems to me elementary that if you’ve got the story that’s going to dominate history you might as well go right to the president.” But on July 10, no one knew—or could have known—that this tidbit of intelligence would turn out to dominate history.

Could better thinking have changed the course of history?

4. Michael Lewis’s bestselling Moneyball is a story about the inefficiency of the traditional mode of prediction. Professional baseball scouts traditionally forecast the success of possible players in part by their build and look. The hero of Lewis’s book is Billy Beane, the manager of the Oakland A’s, who made the unpopular decision to overrule his scouts and to select players by the statistics of past performance. The players the A’s picked were inexpensive, because other teams had rejected them for not looking the part. The team soon achieved excellent results at low cost.

5. The basic message of Built to Last and other similar books is that good managerial practices can be identified and that good practices will be rewarded by good results. Both messages are overstated. Because luck plays a large role, the quality of leadership and management practices cannot be inferred reliably from observations of success. And even if you had perfect foreknowledge that a CEO has brilliant vision and extraordinary competence, you still would be unable to predict how the company will perform with much better accuracy than the flip of a coin. On average, the gap in corporate profitability and stock returns between the outstanding firms and the less successful firms studied in Built to Last shrank to almost nothing in the period following the study. The average profitability of the companies identified in the famous In Search of Excellence dropped sharply as well within a short time. A study of Fortune’s “Most Admired Companies” finds that over a twenty-year period, the firms with the worst ratings went on to earn much higher stock returns than the most admired firms.

Photo Credit:

Please Find A Very Interesting Snapshot Of The Book by: Eva-Lotta Lamm

This sketchnote is featured in Eva-Lotta’s new book that gathers her sketchnotes from over 100 talks taken at design events and conferences in 2011.
 
In addition, Eva-Lotta invited 10 of her favourite sketchnoters from all over the world to contribute to the book. They all sketched the same TED talk and created some stunning sketches that show off the wide variety of styles and different ways of summarising content.
 
www.sketchnotesbook.com

36 Responses

  1. I’m impressed, I must say. Actually not often do I encounter a weblog that’s each educative and entertaining, and let me inform you, you have hit the nail on the head. Your concept is excellent; the issue is something that not enough people are talking intelligently about. I am very joyful that I stumbled across this in my seek for something regarding this.

  2. We absolutely love your blog and find a lot of
    your post’s to be precisely what I’m looking for.
    can you offer guest writers to write content for you? I wouldn’t mind publishing a post or elaborating on some of the
    subjects you write regarding here. Again, awesome web log!
    https://www.tor.com/members/copyrepair1/

  3. Its like you read my mind! You appear to know a lot about this,
    like you wrote the book in it or something. I think that you can do with some pics to drive the message home a bit,
    but instead of that, this is wonderful blog. A great read.
    I will certainly be back.

    my web site; Royal CBD

  4. Generally I don’t learn article on blogs, however I would like to say
    that this write-up very forced me to take a look at and do so!

    Your writing taste has been surprised me. Thanks, quite great post.

    online pharmacy https://pharmaciescegs.com/ pharmacy online

  5. best place to buy viagra online https://usggrxmed.com/ where to buy viagra

  6. viagra how to https://fmedrx.com/ buying viagra.nz

  7. can you buy viagra over the counter https://abcrxmed.com/ generic viagra

  8. viagra for men online https://pillexrx.com/ viagra prescription online

  9. where can i buy viagra https://edabcrx.com/ viagra
    without a doctor prescription canada

  10. Cialis cost cialis generic cialis
    20 mg

  11. Pharmacy tadalafil cheap tadalafil

  12. Cialis 20mg mycialedst.com cialis
    20mg

  13. Tadalafil viagra buy cialis

  14. Online loans with monthly payments installment loan online installment loans online no credit check

  15. Best online loan companies https://best12loans.com/ online loan no
    credit check

  16. Payday loans las vegas payday loans las vegas payday loans online

  17. Quick payday loans https://loans365payday.com/ payday loans no credit
    check

  18. Poor credit personal loans small personal loans online discover personal loans

  19. Best personal loans for bad credit personal loans bank of america fast personal loans

  20. Viagra pill https://viashoprx.com women viagra

  21. Cialis buy online https://cialmenshoprx.com
    cheap cialis

  22. Buy tadalafil http://acialaarx.com generic cialis online

  23. Viagra meme http://xviagarrx.com/ viagra doses

  24. Drug prices are set by manufacturers. http://bestviagrx.com/ Drug
    prices are set by manufacturers.

  25. It’s hard to come by knowledgeable people on this subject, however, you sound like
    you know what you’re talking about! Thanks

  26. The age group 65 – 79 has the highest incidence of cancer of the pancreas.
    viagetpill.com The age group
    65 – 79 has the highest incidence of cancer of the pancreas.

  27. I eat foods high in purine levels, but I space them out throughout the day.
    http://viarxhd.com/ I eat foods high
    in purine levels, but I space them out throughout the day.

  28. Mononucleosis is a disease more often in the young than in anyone over age 40.
    viagra over the counter Mononucleosis is a
    disease more often in the young than in anyone over age 40.

  29. Use soothing lotions, such as calamine lotion, on the affected area.
    cialis vs viagra Use soothing lotions,
    such as calamine lotion, on the affected area.

  30. Roving T cells contact the allergen, setting in motion a more prolonged immune response.
    buyhdpillvia.com
    Roving T cells contact the allergen, setting in motion a more
    prolonged immune response.

  31. Since July 2003, the drug ring allegedly hdgenericviagraxk.com Since July 2003, the drug ring
    allegedly

  32. Hay que entender lo que es una campaña SEO tais como una estrategia a completar
    para aumentar la visibilidad y tráfico de calidad para la
    página.

    Review my web-site – posicionamiento en buscadores web

  33. All girls are different. generic viagra online for sale All girls are different.

  34. Metaeetiqueta Canonical, posicionamiento web que es
    se emplea para indicar la dirección o URL de la página principal o
    canonicalizada cuando se puede acceder an una misma página desde dos URLs distintas.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published.